Economic Indicators Point to Continued Growth in First Quarter.

The available economic indicators suggest that the recovery noted in the fourth quarter of 2024 has continued into the first quarter of 2025.

The national accounts for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that GDP jumped 3.6% on the third quarter of 2024, seasonally adjusted, and 9.2% on the fourth quarter of 2023. These impressive numbers made up for a poor first three quarters of the year and resulted in a net increase for 2024 of 1.2% on 2023. Modified Domestic Demand (MDD), a measure of domestic economic activity, had a marginally better year and ended 2.6% higher than in 2023 though signs of a slow down in the last quarter.

So far in the first quarter of this year, the index of industrial production in February is up 10% on January and by20% on February 2024. The running has been made by the modern sector with the traditional sector still below its 2024 average level though pulling up a bit in February.

After a good year in 2024 services continue to expand briskly and production was running well ahead of 2024 levels in February. Compared to twelve months previously, services were a whopping 19% higher than February 2024.

These trends are mirrored in the March AIB survey of purchasing managers. Anything above zero in this presentation represents an increase and ups and downs represent rates of change. It can be seen that services, after a good 2024 have continued in positive territory in the first three months of 2025 with a sharp uptick in March. Most encouraging is the trend in manufacturing. That had been negative in much of 2024 but so far this year has been positive including in March.

The final graph shows unemployment in absolute and percentage terms. The two measures are obviously closely aligned. At the end of last year there was a slight uptick in both seasonally adjusted indices. But this was followed by a steep fall in January which continued into February. In March there was a slight uptick as numbers rose by about 2,000 and the rate up marginally from 2.8% to 2.9%. Overall, though, unemployment in the first quarter was lower than the last quarter of 2024.