Dramatic Demographics: Ireland’s Rapid Population Growth
Recent data from the CSO gives the Irish population at 5.5 million in April 2024 up by 41% since 2001. This is a very rapid rate of population growth. By contrast EU population grew by 5% in the same period. Migration is the key factor and has provided 54% of the total. As is to be expected migration likely also accounts for a high proportion of the increase in jobs. In the year to April 2024 net migration of over 25 year olds, presumably mostly coming to work, was the same as the total increase in employment - 50,000. Over the time since 2001 this age cohort of migrants was equal to about 54% of the increase in employment and suggests about half of employment growth is accounted for by migrants.
Inflation Resumes Downward Trend
The latest 'flash' estimates of inflation in August from Eurostat indicates that the decline in inflation, which seemed to be held up in July, has resumed, The rate for the Eurozone was 1.5% in the year to August (2.2% in June and in July). In Ireland the rate was 1.1% (1.5% in June and July). A decline in ECB interest rates, which seemed doubtful last month, now seems certain in September. In the US, where inflation has been around 3% there had been doubts about an interest rate cut. But poor employment figures have changed that so a cut in rates on both sides of the Atlantic now seems imminent.
Economy Down in First Half 2024
Latest national accounts data for the second quarter of 2024 show that GDP was running 4% below the first half of 2023. Data on Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) a measure of the domestic economy, was slightly worse. However, data on industrial production for July did show an increase on June so maybe the third quarter will see a turnaround. Data on the labour market shows a very tight situation. The rate of unemployment in August was as low as it had been at the peak of the 2007 boom.