INFLATION The October inflation figures show improvement in rates of inflation everywhere. In Ireland the October year to year rate was down from 6.4% in September to 5.1%. In terms of the EU measure, our inflation was down to 3.6%. Declines in energy prices and moderation in the impact of rising mortgage rates were the main factors here. In the EU, the US and the UK the story was similar with the implication that further rises in interest rates are off the table for the time being.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMISSIONS TARGETS: The EPA recently published a report showing that Ireland's carbon emissions had declined 2.7% between 2018 and 2022. It's progress of a sort. But the Climate Advisory Committee, whose annual report appeared a few days later, was highly critical. The progress 2018-2022 was below what is needed to meet the 2025 national emissions reduction targets.
ECONOMIC SLOW DOWN THIS YEAR TO BE FOLLOWED BY RECOVERY IN 2024. Slower growth in the world economy in 2023 has taken its toll of the Irish economy. There is general agreement amongst economic forecasters that 2023 will see a sharp decline in growth in the Irish economy from the very rapid expansion in 2022 followed by resumption of growth in 2024 at something like the long term average. There is some difference amongst forecasters about the shape and depth of the slow down with the Central Bank suggesting GDP growth of 2.9% this year and a little less net year while the ESRI forecasts a decline this year followed by a sharp recovery in 2024 .