Dramatic Demographics: Ireland’s Rapid Population Growth
Recent data from the CSO gives the Irish population at 5.5 million in April 2024 up by 41% since 2001. This is a very rapid rate of population growth. By contrast EU population grew by 5% in the same period. Migration is the key factor and has provided 54% of the total. As is to be expected migration likely also accounts for a high proportion of the increase in jobs. In the year to April 2024 net migration of over 25 year olds, presumably mostly coming to work, was the same as the total increase in employment - 50,000. Over the time since 2001 this age cohort of migrants was equal to about 54% of the increase in employment and suggests about half of employment growth is accounted for by migrants.
Inflation Reaccelerates Slightly Everywhere
October inflation figures showed a slight reacceleration on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US the rate rose from 2.4% in September to 2.6% and in Europe from 1.7% to 2%. In the UK there was a relatively large jump from 1.7% to 2,3%. In Ireland the CPI rose by 0.7%, - the same as in September, but the inflation as measured by the EU's HICP moved up marginally from nil to 0.1%. Most opinion is that these increases are temporary glitches in the general downward trend in the past year. Consequently, further reductions in Interest rates seem likely to go ahead as previously expected. In Europe and the UK sluggish activity is a predominant consideration. In the US where the economy is running hit, the issue should be more in the balance, but opinion there too, expects a reduction in interest rates before the end of the year.
Signs of Pick Up in Economy in Third Quarter
The national accounts for the first and second quarters of 2024 showed the economy running about 4% below the same period last year. The third quarter accounts will be available in December. Meantime examination of indices of industrial and services production suggest a recovery in the third quarter. This is reinforced by the trend in unemployment which is continuing at a record low level.