Latest Economic Forecasts

With slow growth in Europe, China and the UK, 2023 recorded a sharp slow down in the Irish economy with GDP falling by over 3% and Modified Domestic Demand (a measure which excludes the effects of multinationals) .

The attached table shows the latest forecasts for Ireland made by various organisations. The EU has a rather pessimistic view of the economy for this year but with something better in 2025. The ESRI and the Central Bank are more optimistic. Interestingly, despite appearing abut the same time, and using the same sources, the two institutions differ in their estimates and forecasts for this year and next. In summary they expect growth of the economy, whether measured by GDP or MDD will be fairly subdued. They are both in strong contrast to the Department of Finance which offers a rather dynamic prospect. That, however, was before the budget. It will be interesting to see what their next forecast, due in the coming weeks, will say.

With respect to inflation, there is agreement that the prospects are encouraging. Whether measured by the EU’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) or our own Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation is expected to be dramatically lower this year than last and to continue downwards in the next two years.