More people are joining the labour force and more are getting jobs:The attached graph shows that the trend noted in our last commentary on the labour force, that the labour supply is getting increasingly tight, has continued. In mid-2022 the rate of unemployment was 4.4%, only slightly above the lowest on record and below the…
Read more
A New Contagious Disease: Inflation
Latest Consumer Price Index from the CSO: As one contagion fades, another looms: inflation takes the place of Covid. Barely had Covid dropped out of the headlines than a new and potentially more economically costly threat emerged in the form of inflation.The attached graph shows prices each month since January 2020 compared with the same month the…
Read more
Latest Economic Forecasts:
Roundup of Economic Forecasts:The forecasts for the third quarter shown here reflect some interesting changes to the forecasts published at mid year.Most show a substantial jump in expectations for the outcome for 2022. Typical is the ESRI which has bumped up its third quarter forecast of Modified Domestic Demand (MDD, a better measure of real…
Read more