Category Archives: Uncategorized

The Labour Market Looks Strong: But for How Long?

More people are joining the labour force and more are getting jobs:The attached graph shows that the trend noted in our last commentary on the labour force, that the labour supply is getting increasingly tight, has continued.  In mid-2022 the rate of unemployment was 4.4%, only slightly above the lowest on record and below the…
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A New Contagious Disease: Inflation

Latest Consumer Price Index from the CSO: As one contagion fades, another looms: inflation takes the place of Covid.  Barely had Covid dropped out of the headlines than a new and potentially more economically costly threat emerged in the form of inflation.The attached graph shows prices each month since January 2020 compared with the same month the…
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Latest Economic Forecasts:

Roundup of Economic Forecasts:The forecasts for the third quarter shown here reflect some interesting changes to the forecasts published at mid year.Most show a substantial jump in expectations for the outcome for 2022. Typical is the ESRI which has bumped up its third quarter forecast of Modified Domestic Demand (MDD, a better measure of real…
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