GDP Edges Down in Fourth Quarter – Stays Well Ahead of 2024 Levels.
After a rapid increase in output and exports in the first quarter, caused by the stampede to get product into the US before the Trump tariffs, activity declined only slightly in the next three quarters. The preliminary figures for the fourth quarter show a slight dip on the third quarter., but a 6.7% increase on the level in the corresponding quarter of 2024. It means that GDP rose by 12.6% in 2025. Modified Domestic Demand, a measure of activity with the international sector removed, advanced by 2.3% in the third quarter and is now up 5.3% on year ago levels. In summary, output in the nine months of 2025 was running 13.2% ahead of the average for 2024 while for MDD the corresponding figure was 3.8%.