Third Quarter Indicators of Macro Trends
The third quarter national accounts were published in December and confirm a sharp jump in GDP on the second quarter. Overall, GDP was up 3.5% in the third quarter compared with the second which itself was revised up 0.5%. The third quarter was 2.5% up on the same quarter in 2023 but overall GDP in the first nine months of the year was 1.6% lower than the first nine months of 2023.
Modified Domestic Demand (MDD), a measure of domestic economic activity, fell in the third quarter and has fallen in each of the preceding two quarters. It is now about 2% lower in the first nine months of this year compared to 2023.
Turning to the fourth quarter, the available information on industrial production in this period is for October and November. The indices for industrial production for those months is neutral: a rise in October was cancelled by a fall in November with a sharp fall in the traditional sector.
An available fairly current general indicator of economic trends is unemployment. The attached graph shows the numbers on the Live Register. This edged up in December following a fall in November but it still somewhat below its level of December 2023. (The Live Register is a rough measure of unemployment as it includes some persons – like certain retirees- not unemployed as such.
The final current indicator is the AIB survey of purchasing managers which is available for December. Anything above zero in this presentation represents an increase and it can be seen that services have been doing very well in in most of 2024. The rate seems to have declined a bit in December but was still positive. Manufacturing has not been so buoyant this year and after a positive result in October the index moved into the red for November and December.
Overall the indicators for the fourth quarter are not encouraging. The CSO will publish the national accounts for that period in March.
Unless noted to the contrary all graphs are based on CSO statistics