Latest Macro Economic Data
Data on second quarter of 2024 were released by the CSO on September 5th. They showed (first graph) that GDP in the second quarter of 2024 was 4% down on the same period last year. As the first quarter was also behind by the same amount GDP for the first half a decline of 4% is the trend for the first half of 2024. GDP is now running about 6% below the peak achieved in 2022 which resulted from multinational activity following the ending of the COVID crisis.
Modified Domestic Demand, a component of GDP which excludes the influence of the multinational sector, is a better measure of the domestic economy. It has followed the trend in GDP except as the graph shows, more slowly. In the first half of 2024 it was about 6% below the level in the first half of 2023, marginally less than the trend in GDP.
The data on industrial production up to the second quarter more or less mirrors the trend in GDP (second graph). The overall level of industrial production is dominated by the modern, that is the multinational sector. However, traditional industry, which might be expected to track MDD shows an upward trend through mid-2023 on. In July, not shown, the index for all three measures was up on June by about 4%. Suggesting that perhaps the general level of economic activity is recovering in the third quarter.
One other important measure of current economic activity is the labour force (third graph). As of the first half of 2024 participation rates were very high by historical standards and unemployment rates were low. In the first quarter of 2024 the rate of unemployment attained levels seen at the peak of the 2007 boom (i.e. 4.3%). The monthly figure for unemployment (not shown) showed a slight rise in the unemployment rate in July but as of August it was down again to 4.3% perhaps supporting the suggestion from industrial production, that the economy is on the rise in the third quarter. Participation rates have also been very high indicating a tight labour market.
