Recent data from the CSO gives the Irish population at 5.5 million in April 2024 up by 41% since 2001. This is a very rapid rate of population growth. By contrast EU population grew by 5% in the same period. Migration is the key factor and has provided 54% of the total. As is to be expected migration likely also accounts for a high proportion of the increase in jobs. In the year to April 2024 net migration of over 25 year olds, presumably mostly coming to work, was the same as the total increase in employment - 50,000. Over the time since 2001 this age cohort of migrants was equal to about 54% of the increase in employment and suggests about half of employment growth is accounted for by migrants.

October inflation figures showed a slight reacceleration on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US the rate rose from 2.4% in September to 2.6% and in Europe from 1.7% to 2%. In the UK there was a relatively large jump from 1.7% to 2,3%. In Ireland the CPI rose by 0.7%, - the same as in September, but the inflation as measured by the EU's HICP moved up marginally from nil to 0.1%. Most opinion is that these increases are temporary glitches in the general downward trend in the past year. Consequently, further reductions in Interest rates seem likely to go ahead as previously expected. In Europe and the UK sluggish activity is a predominant consideration. In the US where the economy is running hit, the issue should be more in the balance, but opinion there too, expects a reduction in interest rates before the end of the year.

The national accounts for the third quarter were published early in December and show that GDP advanced 3.5% in that quarter. That leaves GDP to date still 1.6% below the first three quarters of 2023. With a bit more growth in the fourth quarter, GDP in 2024 may finish up level with 2023. Modified Domestic Demand fell in the third quarter and is running 2% below 2023 levels. It is likely to finish the year in negative territory. However, most forecasts point to a brisk recovery in 2025.