Recent data from the CSO gives the Irish population at 5.5 million in April 2024 up by 41% since 2001. This is a very rapid rate of population growth. By contrast EU population grew by 5% in the same period. Migration is the key factor and has provided 54% of the total. As is to be expected migration likely also accounts for a high proportion of the increase in jobs. In the year to April 2024 net migration of over 25 year olds, presumably mostly coming to work, was the same as the total increase in employment - 50,000. Over the time since 2001 this age cohort of migrants was equal to about 54% of the increase in employment and suggests about half of employment growth is accounted for by migrants.

Inflation figures for December show that for the third month running inflation has increased on both sides of the Atlantic, including Ireland. In Ireland the rate in December was 1.4% having been half that in October. It should be noted, however, that by international standards that is quite low. In the US the December rate is now 2.9% and in the EU, 2.4%, both figures outside the monetary target. It seems unlikely that that will stop the ECB from lowering interest rates in the Eurozone: the case for a cut in he US, where the economy is booming, is not so clear cut. In Ireland, the increase in inflation is mostly attributable to services prices, mostly the hospitality sector, where prices increased by 2.7% in December. These are relatively disappointing results for the US and Europe and will likely mean that any further cuts in interest rates will be slow coming in the US given that the economy there is doing well. In the Eurozone early interest rate reductions are more likely given the sluggish performance of the EU economy, though some conservatives think that inflation is not yet subdued and the ECB should hold its hand for the time being. The December preliminary figures will reinforce this line of thinking.

The national accounts for the third quarter were published early in December and show that GDP advanced 3.5% in that quarter. That leaves GDP to date still 1.6% below the first three quarters of 2023. Modified Domestic Demand fell in the third quarter and is running 2% below 2023 levels. It is likely to finish the year in negative territory. The available indicators for the fourth quarter are mixed with industrial production about level and the AIB Purchasing Managers Index still showing industry declining.