JimD

Recent data from the CSO gives the Irish population at 5.5 million in April 2024 up by 41% since 2001. This is a very rapid rate of population growth. By contrast EU population grew by 5% in the same period. Migration is the key factor and has provided 54% of the total increase. As is to be expected migration likely also accounts for a high proportion of the increase in jobs. In the year to April 2024 net migration of over 25 year olds, presumably mostly coming to work, was the same as the total increase in employment - 50,000. Over the time since 2001 this age cohort of migrants was equal to about 54% of the increase in employment and suggests about half of employment growth is accounted for by migrants.

After a rapid increase in output and exports in the first quarter, caused by the stampede to get product into the US before the Trump tariffs, activity was maintained in the second quarter. Very early figures for the third quarter suggest a slight dip. In Q2 GDP was up 0.2% on the Q1 2025 and 18% ahead of the level in the corresponding quarter of 2024. Modified Domestic Demand, a measure of activity with the international sector removed, advanced by 0.6% and is up 4.3% on year ago levels. In summary, output in the first half of 2025 was running 13.9% ahead of the average for 2024 while for MDD the corresponding figure was 3.3%. Indicators for July and August suggest economic activity has been sustained in the third quarter.