Dramatic Demographics: Ireland’s Rapid Population Growth
Recent data from the CSO gives the Irish population at 5.5 million in April 2024 up by 41% since 2001. This is a very rapid rate of population growth. By contrast EU population grew by 5% in the same period. Migration is the key factor and has provided 54% of the total. As is to be expected migration likely also accounts for a high proportion of the increase in jobs. In the year to April 2024 net migration of over 25 year olds, presumably mostly coming to work, was the same as the total increase in employment - 50,000. Over the time since 2001 this age cohort of migrants was equal to about 54% of the increase in employment and suggests about half of employment growth is accounted for by migrants.
Inflation: It Hasn’t Gone Away You Know
Inflation figures for December show that for the third month running inflation has increased on both sides of the Atlantic, including Ireland. In Ireland the rate in December was 1.4% having been half that in October. It should be noted, however, that by international standards that is quite low. In the US the December rate is now 2.9% and in the EU, 2.4%, both figures outside the monetary target. This did not stop the ECB from cutting its main rate by 0.25% at its January meeting on the basis that the Euro economy is going slowly . In the US the opposite is the case and in January the Fed held its main rate at 4.5%. In Ireland, the increase in inflation is mostly attributable to services prices, mostly the hospitality sector, where prices increased by 2.7% in December.
Unemployment at All Time Low Suggests Activity Picked up at Start of New Year
The national accounts for the third quarter were published early in December and show that GDP advanced 3.5% in that quarter. That leaves GDP to date still 1.6% below the first three quarters of 2023. Modified Domestic Demand fell in the third quarter and is running 2% below 2023 levels. It is likely to finish the year in negative territory. Indicators for the last month of 2024 and for January 2025 suggest there has been a pick up in activity in both industry and services as unemployment falls to a record low level.